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Disconnected

May 5, 2020 / 18 Comments

Right now, the Philippine stock market is disconnected from economic reality. The unemployment rate is rising but the markets don’t seem to care. In fact, mula sa nagkaroon tayo ng unang suspected case ng Covid-19 which was Jan 30, 2020 bumagsak lang ang index natin ng less than 25%.

FIRST SUSPECTED COVID-CASE VS NOW

PSEI As of May 4, 2020

I like statistics. I look at statistics almost all the time to get a bird’s eye view of what is going on. Right now nandito tayo with regards sa Covid-19.

COVID STAT
Projected Economic impact of covid ph

THE RALLY

The days when stock and bond prices could be seen as a reliable indicator of the health of a nation’s economy are over, it seems. Mula sa low ng index natin last march umakyat ito at about 37%.

PSEI

FEAR OF MISSING OUT

What caused such rally? Well, una ang goverment intervention through their statements and aids but yung best reason was FOMO. Isang big factor driving stock market gains could be investors’ fear of missing out. Investors’ fear of missing out took hold and added to the rally.

SECOND WAVE

My dad and I discussed the second-wave of Covid-19 after the quarantine is lifted. Will there be a second wave? YES! Its a guarantee. If you think about it, nagkaroon tayo ng lockdown not to eliminate the virus but to stop it from spreading. Stopping it from spreading is not really the reason bakit tayo nagkaroon ng lockdown. Ang real reason which most of the time na e-ignore is ang capacity ng health care facilities/hospitals natin. Kaya may sinasabe sila lagi na curve. Kailangan natin ma e delay ang spread to buy us more time kasi if lahat nagkaroon ng Covid-19 wala tayong lugar kung saan ma a-accommodate lahat ng patients and the result would be a disaster.

As of writing, hindi ako makakuha ng exact statistics ng unemployement sa Pinas but I will be sure to update you once I got it.

TREAT EVERYTHING AS A BOUNCE

I always remind my TL Family na wala pa tayo sa kalahati ng pagbagsak ng market. Treat everything as bounce. Kapag nakabii ka at nagkaroon ng rally just exit according sa strategy mo at withdraw your gains then abang ulit sa next opportunity. I say this di dahil sa opinion ko but I’m saying this dahil sa data. As of today over 40B ang foreign selling YTD. Walang tigil ang exit ng foreign funds sa market ntin. A fact na most ayaw bigyan ng liwanag. Look here:

PSE Net Foreign Buy and Sell

Once naging Net Foreign Buy na yan I will update you agad. Kapag nagcurve na pataas I will update you all agad para informed kayo.

CLEAR PICTURE

Paano ba natin makikita ang clear or tunay na picture ng companies na bumubuo ng market natin? This is where our  TRADERS LOUNGE PH FORUM will be an edge sa inyo.

traders lounge ph forum

I will give you my TL TEAM’s research. We will give you the data/ranking ng earnings ng bawat company sa Pinas na listed sa PSE. You will get a clear picture of how they are really doing.

Yung mga “ok na ba si CEB?” or “Bobodega ako ky BDO kasi banko siya. Hindi mababankrupt yan” ay mabibigyan ng kulay at masusupport ng data. You will be an informed trader. Makakatulong ito sa pagdedecide ninyo about buying certain stocks.

PSE Company performance as of April 2020
PSE Company performance as of April 2020

Let us take for example CEB. Gaano ba ka affected si CEB ng Covid-19? Well, you might read sa news na marami cancelled flights. That’s it. Pero kapag TL FAMILY ka namin we will give you data. Negative 135% ang decline ng earnings ni CEB. That is 1.18 Billion pesos. We will then show you earnings ng ibang companies including PAL and show you ang pinagkaiba. We will let you see at compare mga iba’t ibang companies wth regards to their earnings. All you need is go at TRADERS LOUNGE PH FORUM at hanapin ang Healthy Discussion na topic.

PSE Company performance as of April 2020

If you want to learn more about stock trading join our Facebook Group called Trader’s Lounge. 

Our advocacy is sharing ideas, experiences and, knowledge to traders for FREE. We offer free Technical/Fundamental Analysis and Market Psychology learning materials. 

There are available weekly lessons inside. We created different trading strategies like MAMA which made a lot of traders profitable. Other trading strategies include FISHBALL, PAPA, CALMA and more. We want to offer OFW’s, Employees and all Filipino people a chance to learn without paying a cent. 

Youtube Channel  is also available where you can watch and listen to my discussions on strategies and trading related topics. 

Come join us. Let us push free learning. 

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