Blog,  Trading Basics

Who Moves the Market?

SINO BA NAGPAPAGALAW NG MARKET NATIN?

Foreign funds? Institutional Investors?

Should we just accept that fact na sila nga nagpapagalaw ng market natin or can we dig a little deeper? If you have been following me for some time you probably know whats going to happen next. Sit back. Take some coffee for we are going for a ride!

WHO MOVED THE MARKET TODAY?

Nakakasawa na pakinggan ang sagot na Insti at foreign whenever we asked sino nagpapagalaw ng market. Ibahin natin. Just for today hanapin natin sino nagpagalaw ng market natin.

May 13, 2020. Let us find out who moved the market today.

Go to quotes. Go to Broker transactions. Go to rankings.

 

Ang nagpagalaw ng market natin or ang drivers ng market atin today ay sina UBS with 1.1 Billion pesos total amount ng transaction. CLSA with 768 Million pesos total amount of transaction. Col Financial, Philippine Equity, Credit Suisse, ATR Kim, Timson Sec, Public Sec, Papa Sec at Mandarin Sec. These ten brokers ay bumuo ng 63.75% ng kabuuang transaction ng market natin today.

UBS SEC

Let’s take UBS securities for example. Ito transactions niya today.

UBS bought net amount of 97 Million pesos of ALI (bought 117 Million, sold 19 Million). UBS also bought net amount of 14 Million pesos of PGOLD and 18 Million pesos of SEVN. Here is the question. Did you know that UBS will buy those stocks today?

BUYING WHAT SMART MONEY ARE BUYING.

Narinig mo na ba yung kasabihan na “follow the smart money” or “buy what insti/foreign/fundies buy?”

Madalas ko marinig yan sa traders. The problem with that is maganda yan pakinggan but it makes no sense in real life. Una sa lahat wala kang idea sa reason ng pamimili ng mga “smart money.” Pwede ka magkaroon guess but you don’t know for sure. Alam mo ba bakit binili ni UBS ang ALI, PGOLD at SEVN today? Of course not! Pwede ka magkaroon guess but your guess has no substance. Pangalawa, hindi mo alam n bibili ang UBS ng ALI, PGOLD at SEVN prior today. How could you know di ba? You can take a guess but your guess is just a guess.

HOW DOES A MARKET REALLY MOVE?

Market movement is being dictated by the person/company/firm who has the most money. This is a money game.

Kunyare dalawa lang tayo na trader sa PSE. If you have 1 Million pesos and I have 100 Million pesos. Kahit anong gawin mo hindi mo mapapagalaw ang isang stock sa direction na gusto mo unless hindi ako makialam. Gustuhin mo kunyare na pataasin si SM eh ayaw ko at may mga shares ako ni SM. Kahit anong bili mo bebentahan lang kita ng bebentahan hanggang wala ka nang pambili. Gusto mong ibagsak si JFC eh ayaw ko. Kahit anong gawin mo na pagbenta ay bibilhin ko lang ng bibilhin hanggang wala ka nang shares.

 

FUNDAMENTALS MOVE MARKETS

Nope. Naging popular lang yan dahil people with big money buy stocks using fundamentals noon. The most popular one is Warren Buffet. How UBS or CLSA buy stocks ay wala tayong alam. They might be buying it dahil sa potential. They might be buying it dahil trip lang nila. They might be buying it dahil sa technicals. We don’t know for certain. The only thing we know is that they have enough money to move the market.

UHHMMM... FOLLOW SMART MONEY?

We already established na di mo alam ano ang bibilhin ng mga insti/foreign/fundies at kung kailan sila bibili. Why would you follow something you don’t know? That don’t make any sense.

PAANO KA KIKITA KUNG DI MO E FOLLOW ANG SMART MONEY ABER? SABI MO SMART MONEY MOVES THE MARKET...DUH....

That is true. I did say na smart money or those with big money moves the market. What I did not tell you was you can earn without following them…ish.

ANALOGY

Idaan natin sa analogy para kunyare smart ako. Para mag mukhang smart din ako hahaha. Mga smart daw me pa analogy analogy pa pag nag e-explain eh.

May dalawang lugar tawagin nating point A at point B. May maraming sasakyan. May taxi, may bus, may padyak, may kabayo. Lahat ng pwede mo ma-imagine na sasakyan mayroon. Isang rule lang. Lahat ng biyahe mula point A to point B ay gain. Lahat ng biyahe mula point B to point A na ay loss.

Hindi mo kilala ang driver. Wala kang alam kung ano iniisip niya. Ang alam mo lang ay lahat ng mula sa point A papuntang point B ay gain at lahat ng mula point B papuntang point A ay talo. DI mo kilala ang driver at di mo alam ang iniisip niya pero alam mo ang direksyon. So, ano gagawin mo?

Maghahanap ka ng biyahe ay mula point A to point B. ( By this time marami na nakakagets ng point na gusto ko ibahagi but itutuloy ko pa rin haha) Iiwasan mo ang biyahe na mula point B to point A.

Di mo alam ang nasa isip ng driver. Di mo rin siya kilala. Sumakay ka kasi akala mo mula point A to point B pero sa gitna ng biyahe sa kung anong trip biglang nagbago isip ng driver at iniliko niya ang sasakyan at biglang ibinalik so pabalik ka ngayon sa point A meaning matatalo ka. Ano dapat mo gawin? Papara ka at baba. Lilipat ka sa ibang sasakyan na ang biyahe ay mula A papuntang B.

Yung mga insti/foreign/fundies sila ang drivers. Hindi natin sila kilala. Di natin alam ano nasa isip nila. Tayo ang pasahero. Di natin kilala ang driver at di natin alam ano nasa isip nila pero alam natin ang direksyon. Alam natin ang uptrend at downtrend. Alam natin ang gain at loss. So gagawin natin ay maghahanp tayo ng biyahe na gain at iiwasan natin ang loss. Kung sakaling nasakyan natin ay biyaheng loss, papara tayo at baba. Then, lilipat sa biyaheng gain. Tama ba analogy ko? Do you agree ba?

MAGIC

What magic? Yung magic dun is nag agree kayo na tama sinabe ko. Meaning nag agree kayo na dapat magcut ng losses kapag against sa iyo ang trade at maghanap ng winning trades. You understood the importance of cutting losses.

TRADING STRATEGIES/SYSTEMS

Joke lang yung nasa taas ha. Walang Gandachu. hahaha.

What does your trading strategy/system do or what should your trading strategy do?

Your strategy should help you FIND THE MOVE (biyahe) and not predict a move. Let me explain what I mean.

Yung strategy mo dapat makahanap ng biyahe papuntang gain. In no way should your strategy predict the move. Walang nakakapredict ng gagalaw ng market. If meron man nagpapaseminar yun haha (kidding).

Let us understand this using a simple chart. Lets take Tech using Moving Average na 9 days ang binibilang.

You buy kapag nabreak ng candle (price) ang MA9 na acting as resistance. You sell kapag nabreak ng candle (price) ang MA9 na acting as a support. Yan kunyare strategy mo. Are you predicting na e break ni candle si MA9 acting as resistance? NOOOOOOO!

Your strategy is simply following a move. Di mo alam na naisipan pala ng mga Insti/foreign/fundies kunyare na bilhin ang Tech. Di mo naisip yun. Wala ka din way para malaman yun. Yung nakita mo lang is umangat ang price at nabreak ang MA9 so bumili ka. You just follow a move. As long as umaakyat ang price hindi mabibreak ang MA9 so according sa strategy mo ihold mo until mabreak ang MA9 so hold ka.

Nung tumigil na pamimili mga INSTI/Fundies/Foreign bumagsak ang presyo. Hindi mo alm tumigil na sila pamimili. Wala kang way malaman yun. Ang alam mo lang pag nabreak ang MA9 acting as support bebenta ka. Meaning niyan bumaba na ang presyo kesa average value ng 9 days so you sell.

Wala kang prediction. You just saw a move and followed it. That’s the reason bakit you rely on indicators that lags kasi you need a move to be made bago ka gumawa decision. Hindi ka po INSTI/FOREIGN/FUNDIES para pagalawin ang market so please lang sa ibang tao nyo na lang e kwento ang “dapat leading at hindi lagging ang indicator/system….price action lang…”

Yung only people na pwede magsabi niyan are the ones that move the market. If I’m a Super duper ultra mega Billionaire I will be a leading indicator. Kapag sinabe ko aangat si JFC bukas aangat yan kasi bibilhin ko ng bibilhin. Unles may isang Super duper ultra mega ectra Billionaire na kokontrahin ako ay walang makakapigil sa akin.

Kapag retailer ka lahat ng agmit mo ay lagging unless nagprepredict ka ng mangyayare or nanghuhula ka.

SYSTEMS MAKES SMART MONEY IRRELEVANT

Ke smart money or not ang nagpagalaw sa stock hindi na masyadong nagmamatter sayo. What matters sayo is gumalaw ang stock.

Gagawa ako ng sample conversation between me at ng isang newbie. Watch how I will try to simplify sa isang newbie ang MAMA. Gagamitin ko mga terms na naiintindihan ng newbies. Game?

THE CONVO: APRIL 6, 2020

Noob: Maam ano trade mo?

Me: Mwide

Noob: Alam ko bakit maam. Nagparamdam na si Calesa. Ako rin ganun trade ko. Bumodega na ako.

Me: Uhmmmmkay…

APRIL 7, 2020

Noob: Maam HOLD lang atyo good news may sumasabay na ky calesa. Sumabay si Phil Equity maam. Ayos.

Me: Ummmkay…

APRIL 8, 2020

Noob: (natataranta) OMG maaaaaaaaaaaaam!!! Nagtulong tulong sina Calesa, Regina at Deutsche!!! Nagresearch ako maaaaaaam. Malaki yang si Doyts. Whaaaaale yan maaam.

Me: Okay so ano gagawin natin?

Noob: kailangan pa ba e memorize yan maaaaaaam? Syempre hold!!!Todamoon to maaam!

APRIL 13, 2020

Noob: Maaaam…. sumali na mga hayuuup. Sumali sina tower at unicap! Steady pa rin si doyts. Tiningnan ko sa Imbestagrams maam 2 Million mahigit ang volume….paweeer…

Me: Ok, so bebenta na natin?

Noob: NOOOO way maam ano ka ba?! Todamoon to. Tiwala ka lang sakin. I gotchu!

Me: Mmmmmkay….

APRIL 14, 2020

Noob: Maaam?

Me: yes?

Noob: Wala na pinnnish na maam.

Me:ha?

Noob: Pinnish na maam. Double team na nila Doyts at Calesa. Todamoon na maaam.

Me: So……hold?

Noob: OPCORZ!!

APRIL 15, 2020

Noob: Loko si Calesa maam nagbenta na.

Me: Ok so ano gagawin natin?

Noob: Hold langmam kasi sabi ni Doyts ay gat chu!

APRIL 16, 2020

Noob: Hold lang maam I gotchu. Ako bahala mag abang kay doyts. Buying parin sya.

APRIL 17, 2020

Noob: Maam absent si Doyts!TSK!

APRIL 20, 2020

Noob: Maaaaaam

Noob: Maaaam uyyyy…

Noob: Maaaam uyyy psssttt…uyMe:Yes?yy pssst..

Noob: Maam sumali si credit bentahan. Di naman bumili yan. Si calesa benta din. Yawa di ko makita si Doyts.

Me: Ok, so…

Noob: Hold maam. Baka magpakita si doyts.

 

APRIL 21, 2020

Noob: Maam double team si Calesa at Credit. Wala pa rin si Doyts.

Me: Benta mo.

Noob: Bakit maam? Ano reason?

Me: Tumawag ako kina Doyts. Dapat daw e benta na (lol!)

Noob: Talaga maam may number ka nina Doyts?

Me: Yes. Basta jaaaaaakey kilala ko yan.

Noob: Ay tama. Jaaaakey nga mga yun. Cge naniniwala ako sa jaaaakey. Benta ko na.

 

WHAT HAPPENED?

Hahaha. Wala akong number ni doyts. Di ko rin alam ang jockey jockey na yan.

Here is what happened.

CONCLUSION

I can simplify things na complicated to a level na a newbie can understand kasi I have been trading for a while na. Mahirap ako eh discredit no matter how they try kasi nga I really have been trading for some time na.

You can never give what you do not have. Di mo pwede magikin mga bagay bagay sa trading. Minsan kahit anong basa mo pa ng investopedia kapag hindi mo nadaanan di mo ma eexplain ng maayos.

I’m not great. I’m average. Marami din akong di pa alam sa trading but kinaiba lang is willing ako e share ng libre mga alam ko. Pasensya na kung mahaba ang blog post na to. Para ito sa TL Family ko. Kung di ka namin kapamilya at nakikibasa ka sa post ko hahaha…. tigilan mo na yan!

Stick to your strategy. You either live or die with it. We all want to know what the future holds or kung ano ang next na lilipad but reality eh we are retailers. We don’t move the market. We can however profit from market movements. 

If you want to learn more about stock trading join our Facebook Group called Trader’s Lounge

Our advocacy is sharing ideas, experiences and, knowledge to traders for FREE. We offer free Technical/Fundamental Analysis and Market Psychology learning materials. 

There are available weekly lessons inside. We created different trading strategies like MAMA which made a lot of traders profitable. Other trading strategies include FISHBALL, PAPA, CALMA and more. We want to offer OFW’s, Employees and all Filipino people a chance to learn without paying a cent. 

Youtube Channel  is also available where you can watch and listen to my discussions on strategies and trading related topics. 

Come join us. Let us push free learning. 

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